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    Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecast of an emerging urgency in Pakistan

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    Authors
    Chaudhry, Rabia M
    Hanif, Asif
    Chaudhary, Muhammad
    Minhas, Sadia
    Mirza, Khalid
    Asif, Tahira
    Gilani, Syed A
    Kashif, Muhammad
    Affiliation
    University of Lahore, Pakistan
    University of Derby
    Bakhtawar Amin Medical and Dental College, Multan, Pakistan
    Issue Date
    2020-05-28
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global challenge due to little available knowledge and treatment protocols. Thus, there is a great need for collecting data related to COVID-19 from all around the world. Hence, we conducted this study, collecting daily data on COVID-19, to map the epidemiology outbreak and forecast its trajectory for May 2020. The data was collected from the officially released reports of the National Institute of Health (NIH), Pakistan, and the World Health Organization (WHO). The analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY), and forecasting was done using a simple moving average in time series modeler/expert modeler. The purpose of this study is to draw the attention of international, as well as national, governing bodies to the rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, and the urgency of evaluating the efficacy of the currently implemented strategy against COVID-19. According to this study, there is now an alarming increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in Pakistan, despite a contained spread in the beginning. The predicted number of COVID-19 cases can go over 35,000 by the end of May 2020. It is crucial for governing bodies, administrators, and researchers to re-evaluate the current situation, designed policies, and implemented strategies.
    Citation
    Chaudhry R M, Hanif A, Chaudhary M, et al. (2020). 'Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecast of an emerging urgency in Pakistan'. Cureus 12(5).
    Publisher
    Cureus, Inc.
    Journal
    Cureus
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10545/625023
    DOI
    10.7759/cureus.8346
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    2168-8184
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.7759/cureus.8346
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Department of Social Sciences

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