Mean spillover effects in agricultural prices: Evidence from changes in policy regimes

Abstract

This paper investigates the behavior of input, output, and consumer food prices under two different policy regime periods, before and after the reformulation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) occurred in May 1992. The findings, through Granger causality tests, support a different behavior in terms of the transmission from the input level to the consumer level and vice versa. This transmission occurs through the output level only for the post-CAP reformulation period, while it occurs in a direct manner over the first period. The results imply that the decrease of agricultural output prices, due to lower minimum support prices following the reformulation of the CAP, is transmitted through the output price mechanism in both input and consumer food markets.