• Do fiscal shocks explain bond yield in high and low debt economies

      Apergis, Nicholas; Rehman, Mobeen; Cooray, Arusha; University of Derby; Ton Duc Thang University; Embassy of Sri Lanka, Oslo, Norway (Emerald, 2020-06-29)
      The goal of this paper is to explore determinants of short-, medium- and long-run bond yields through time series data analysis for 11 developed countries, with five of them being high-debt and remaining as the low-debt economies. By applying variance decomposition using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, empirical findings confirm an important role of demand and supply factors that drive the interest rates across their frequency spectrum. Our results also highlight that for interest rates of different maturities, these factors exhibit heterogeneous behavior across high- and low-debt countries during the pre- and post-crisis regimes.
    • Monetary policy and commodity markets: unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty

      Apergis, Nicholas; Chatzianoniou, Ioannis; Cooray, Arusha; University of Derby; University of Portsmouth; Embassy of Sri Lanka in Oslo; Centre for Poverty Analysis, Sri Lanka (Elsevier, 2020-06-20)
      This study explores the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies in the US and the Euro area on the mean and volatility of certain commodity prices. The analysis considers the prices of eight commodities, i.e. oil, natural gas, gold, silver, aluminium, copper, platinum, and nickel, while the methodology employs the EGARCH-X modelling approach. The empirical findings clearly document that (i) the direction of the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy on commodity returns and commodity volatility is similar and (ii) the impact from unconventional monetary policy on both commodity returns and volatility is relatively more pronounced, while these findings hold valid, irrespective of the geographical region and commodity type. Further investigation of the disparity on the size of the impact through the prism of economic uncertainty reveals that unconventional monetary policy has a stronger effect on economic uncertainty, thereby offering an indirect channel of monetary policy transmission on commodity markets.
    • Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions among developing countries: evidence from stochastic and club convergence tests

      Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James; University of Derby; University of Texas, El Paso (Springer, 2020-06-19)
      This exploratory study extends the literature on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in analyzing the stochastic and club convergence within a panel framework for developing countries. The results from Pesaran (2007) and Bai and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) panel unit root tests with allowance for cross-sectional dependence confirm stochastic convergence for low-income, lower-middle income, and combined country panels. Further analysis using the nonlinear time-varying factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007; 2009) to test for convergence reveals the emergence of multiple convergence clubs within each of the three country panels examined. We observe geographic proximity among many of the countries within the respective convergence clubs.
    • Florida metropolitan housing markets: examining club convergence and geographical market segmentation

      Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James; University of Derby; University of Texas at El Paso (Taylor and Francis, 2020-06-10)
      This study explores the convergence of housing prices for 21 metropolitan areas within the state of Florida for the quarterly period 1987:2 to 2017:3. The examination of house price differentials between metropolitan and state-level house prices using a battery of univariate and panel unit root testing approaches yielded mixed results with respect to the presence of convergence. However, the Phillips-Sul (2007; 2009) club convergence approach identifies four distinct convergence clubs for metropolitan area house prices within Florida with a relatively clear geographical segmentation of the housing market.
    • Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in Pakistan

      Apergis, Nicholas; Ullah, Sana; Usman, Ahmed; Chishti, Muhammad Zubair; University of Derby; Quaid-i-Azam University; Government College University Faisalabad; Quaid-i-Azam University (Springer, 2020-06-06)
      This study inspects the empirical association between inflation instability, GDP growth volatility, and the environmental quality in Pakistan, covering the period 1975-2018 by using an asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodological approach. The asymmetric ARDL results document that positive and negative shocks of inflation instability have different effects on environmental quality. Negative shocks of inflation instability have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and nitrous oxide emissions (N2O), while positive shocks of inflation instability have insignificant effects in the long run. Asymmetric findings also suggest that positive and negative fluctuations in GDP growth volatility affect CO2 and N2O emissions differently, while they have insignificant results on methane emissions (CH4) in the long run. Additionally, in the short-run, positive and negative shocks of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility behave differently in terms of their impact on pollution emissions. Based on these findings, the study opens up innovative intuitions for policymakers to support a robust role of economic stability in attaining targets relevant to pollution reduction.
    • A novel hybrid approach to forecast crude oil futures using intraday data

      Apergis, Nicholas; Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan; Visalakshmi, S.; University of Derby; International Management Institute; Central University of Tamil Nadu (Elsevier, 2020-06-04)
      Prediction of oil prices is an implausible task due to the multifaceted nature of oil markets. This study presents two novel hybrid models to forecast WTI and Brent crude oil prices using combinations of machine learning and nature inspired algorithms. The first approach, MARSplines-IPSO-BPNN, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSPlines) find the important variables that affect crude oil prices. Then, the selected variables are fed into an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO) method to obtain the best estimates of the parameters of the Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN). Once these parameters are obtained, the variables are fed into the BPNN model to generate the required forecasts. The second approach, MARSplines-FPA-BPNN, generates the parameters of BPNN through the Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA). The forecasting performance of these new models is compared to certain benchmark models. The findings document that the MARSplines-FPA-BPNN model performs better than the other competitive models.
    • Pro-environmental business and clean growth trends for the East Midlands 2020

      Paterson, Fred; Baranova, Polina; Gallotta, Bruno; University of Derby (University of Derby, 2020-06-01)
      Based on responses to the East Midlands Chamber (EMC) Quarterly Economic Survey (Feb 2020): The percentage of businesses in the East Midlands deriving turnover from low carbon and pro-environmental goods and services has nearly doubled between 2015 and 2020: increasing from 16% in 2015 to 31% in 2020. 36% of businesses say their environmental strategy is strongly linked with their business growth strategy. However, four in ten firms do not feel well informed about support for clean growth and more than a quarter (26%) are not engaging with the clean growth agenda.
    • Can the Covid-19 pandemic and oil prices drive the US partisan conflict index?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Derby; University of Huddersfield (Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, 2020-05-29)
      This paper investigates the effect of the Covid-19 and oil prices on the US partisan conflict. Using daily data on world Covid-19 and oil prices, monthly data on the US Partisan Conflict index, January 21 to April 30, 2020, and the MIDAS method, the findings document that both Covid-19 and oil prices mitigate US political polarization. The findings imply that political leaders aim low for partisan gains during stressful times.
    • Building career capital: developing business leaders’ career mobility

      Wond, Tracey; Brown, Cathy; Hooley, Tristram; University of Derby; Evolve Consulting Services Limited, Nottingham (Emerald Insight, 2020-05-20)
      Career theorists have been increasingly occupied with role transitions across organisations, neglecting role transitions undertaken within single organisations. By exploring in depth the aspects of career capital that role holders need to facilitate their own organisational role transition, this article builds upon career capital theory. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this study explores the experiences of 36 business leaders who have undertaken a recent role transition within a United Kingdom (UK) construction business. The article empirically characterises 24 career capital aspects, clustered into Knowing Self, Knowing How and Knowing Whom. It argues that these aspects are important to internal role transitions and compares them to mainstream career capital theory. In addition, the concepts of connecting, crossing and investing career capital are introduced to explain how career capital supports such transitions. This study proposes a new career capital framework and refocuses debate on organisational careers. It is based on a single organisation, and it organisations. The article explores the implications of the new career capital framework for business leaders and organisational managers who wish to build individual and organisational career mobility. This study proposes a new, empirically-grounded, career capital theoretical framework particularly attending to organisational role transitions.
    • The role of insurance growth in economic growth: Fresh evidene from a panel of OECD countires

      Apergis, Nicholas; Poufinas, Thomas; University of Derby; Democritus University of Thrace (Elsevier, 2020-05-11)
      Insurance is one of the key activities in a globalised financial and economic environment. Through its benefits, it offers income, life and property protection to the insured and their keens, as well as income accumulation that can be used at retirement to help preserve the desired lifestyle or living standards. Motivated by this end of insurance, the goal of this paper is to study the contribution of insurance growth to economic growth, by employing the benefit side of the insurance activity, next to the acquisition side that has already been considered. More precisely, the findings provide evidence that gross claims payments and gross operating expenses are significantly and positively related to economic growth. At the same time, the results confirm the findings of the existing literature that gross premia and insurance penetration are also significantly and positively related to economic growth. The outcomes hold true for total, life and non-life insurance, both during the pre- and post- 2008-crisis periods, even though less strong after the crisis. Furthermore, the positive and statistically significant impact of gross capital formation, government expenditure, secondary schooling, FDI inflows, trade openness and financial development is validated, in line with certain theoretical expectations.
    • The monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of money market funds in the Eurozone

      Apergis, Nicholas; Hayat, Tasawar; Saeed, Tareq; University of Derby; King Abdulaziz University (Scimago Journal, 2020-05-06)
      This paper investigates the pass-through mechanism of monetary policy through money market funds and bank loan rates under conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method, spanning the period 2003-2018, the findings document that the pass-through of bank loan rates is weaker than that of MMF rates (0.642 vs 1.044, respectively), especially during the unconventional monetary policy period (0.637 vs 1.568, respectively). They highlight that in this period, banks earned less from traditional lending business, due to low or even negative rates, while taking increasingly large risks.
    • The tension between worker safety and organization survival

      Pagell, Mark; Parkinson, Mary; Veltri, Anthony; Gray, John; Louis, Michail; Wiengarten, Frank; Fynes, Brian; University College Dublin; Oregon State University; The Ohio State University; et al. (INFORMS, 2020-05-05)
      This research addresses the fundamental question of whether providing a safe workplace improves or hinders organizational survival, because there are conflicting predictions on the relationship between worker safety and organizational performance. The results, based on a unique longitudinal database covering over 100,000 organizations across 25 years in the U.S. state of Oregon, indicate that in general organizations that provide a safe workplace have significantly lower odds and length of survival. Additionally, the organizations that would in general have better survival odds, benefit most from not providing a safe workplace. This suggests that relying on the market does not engender workplace safety.
    • The role and impact of executive coaching in the Maltese public sector

      Borg Ellul, Duncan; Wond, Tracey; University of Derby (Emerald, 2020-04-06)
      The present study aims to conduct a critical review of an existing set of practices within the Maltese public sector. This study is based on interpretivism (people-centred approach) embedded in a pragmatic research paradigm (the use of mixed methods). Misconceptions about the role and practice of executive coaching in Malta relates to the similar roles ascribed to mentoring, supervision, therapy, consultation, coaching, audit and watchdog under the misnomer of “coaching”. The main contribution of this research is to the community of professional practitioners as well as to the Maltese central government to improve managerial effectiveness in the Maltese public sector with several endorsed policy-level recommendations presented in the study. The results suggest a restructuring of a well-defined, structures, systems and dynamics within the Maltese public administration, the ability by senior management including senior public officers (SPOs) to recognise high-potential talents, the need to expand leadership capacity, the establishment of a professional coaching body and a national coaching network framework. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the role and impact of executive coaching in the Maltese public sector using quantitative and qualitative empirical data.
    • The asymmetric relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices in Vietnam: Some behavioural implications for energy policy-making

      Apergis, Nicholas; Gangopadhyay, Partha; University of Derby; University of Western Sydney (Elsevier, 2020-04-06)
      With rapidly expanding real GDP in Vietnam, it is anticipated that the Vietnamese energy production will increase to meet its rising energy consumption. An important corollary is that pollution will also rise since the energy sector is considered a big polluter in the developing world. This paper brings two important insights to this literature: first and foremost, this paper seeks to establish if any behavioural biases of policy makers have clouded the decision to adopt suitable energy technologies and policies in Vietnam with far-reaching consequences for sustainability in the region. Secondly, in order to detect behavioural biases, it considers the asymmetric effects of increases vis-à-vis decreases in regressors by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) models, to examine how such increases or decreases really impact on pollution in Vietnam. Using annual data from 1982 to 2015, the analysis finds that the long-run relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices have been characterised by non-linear and asymmetric interlinkages to indicate hidden cointegration. We further argue that such hidden cointegration can signal important behavioural biases in (energy) policy-making.
    • A new methodological perspective on the impact of energy consumption on economic growth: time series evidence based on the Fourier approximation for solar energy in the US

      Apergis, Nicholas; Bulut, Unit; University of Derby; Kirsehir Ahi Evran University (Springer, 2020-03-03)
      From the empirical energy literature, it is observed that studies focusing on the energy-economic growth nexus ignore the possible existence of gradual breaks as they employ methods without or with sharp structural breaks. Therefore, one can argue that they may yield biased and inefficient output in the presence of gradual breaks. The goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of solar energy consumption on GDP utilizing quarterly data over the period 1984–2018 for the USA. For this purpose, the paper performs a unit root test and a cointegration test that are based on the Fourier approximation to take gradual breaks into account. The paper also performs the dynamic ordinary least squares estimator to estimate long-run parameters. The findings document that there exists cointegration in the empirical model and that GDP is positively associated with solar energy consumption. Some implications based on the empirical findings are presented in the paper.
    • Do global sentiment shocks spillover towards emerging and frontier markets?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Rehman, Mobeen; University of Derby; Ton Duc Thang University (Emerald, 2020-02-28)
      This study aims to investigate the impact of sentiment shocks based on US investor sentiments, bearish and bullish market conditions. Earlier studies, though very few, only consider the effect of investor sentiments on stock returns of emerging frontier Asian (EFA) markets. This study uses the application of regime switching model because of its capability to explore time-varying causality across different regimes unlike traditional linear models. The Markov regime switching model uses regime switching probabilities for capturing the potential asymmetries or non-linearity in a model, in this study’s case, thereby adjusting investor sentiments shocks to stock market returns. The results of the Markov regime switching method suggests that US sentiment, bullish and bearish market shocks act as a main contributors for inducing variation in EFA stock market returns. The study’s non-parametric robustness results highlight an asymmetric relationship across the mean series, whereas a symmetric relationship across variance series. The study also reports Thailand as the most sensitive market to global sentiment shocks. The sensitivity of the EFA markets to these global sentiment shocks highlights their sensitivity and implications for investors relying merely on returns correlation and spillover. These findings also suggest that spillover from developed to emerging and frontier equity markets only in the form of returns following traditional linear models may not be appropriate. This paper supports the behavioral aspect of investors and resultant spillover from developed market sentiments to emerging and frontier market returns across international equity markets offering more rational justification for an irrational behavior. The study’s motivation to use the application of regime switching models is because of its capability to explore time-varying causality across different regimes unlike traditional linear models. The Markov regime switching model uses regime switching probabilities for capturing the potential asymmetries or non-linearity in a model, in the study’s case, thereby adjusting investor sentiments shocks to stock market returns. It is also useful of the adjustment attributable to exogenous events.
    • Long-term unemployment: a question of skill obsolescence (updating existing skills) or technological shift (acquiring new skills)?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Derby; University of Huddersfield (Emerald, 2020-02-20)
      This paper empirically explores the role of skill losses during unemployment behind firms’ behaviour in interviewing long-term unemployed. The analysis makes use of the Work Employment Relations Survey in the UK, while it applies a Panel Probit Modelling approach to estimate the empirical findings. The findings document that skill losses during long-term unemployment reduce the likelihood of an interview, while they emphasize the need for certain policies that could compensate for this skills deterioration. For robustness check, the estimation strategy survives the examination of the same predictors under different types of the working environment. The original values of the work lie on combining for the first time both duration and technology as predictors of interview probability. Until now, the independent variables were used to test whether an individual has managed to exit unemployment, thus skipping the step of the interview process.
    • Carbon dioxide emissions intensity convergence: Evidence from central American countries

      Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James; University of Derby; University of Texas, El Paso (Frontiers, 2020-01-08)
      This paper extends the literature on the convergence of carbon dioxide emissions intensity and its determinants (energy intensity and the carbonization index) for six Central American countries over the period 1971 to 2014. Using the Phillips-Sul club convergence approach, the results indicate two distinct convergence clubs with respect to carbon dioxide emissions intensity and energy intensity with the first convergence club consisting of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras and the second convergence club consisting of Nicaragua and Panama. However, in the case of the carbonization index, only one convergence club emerges that includes Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua with Panama exhibiting non-convergent behavior.
    • Health care expenditure and environmental pollution: a cross-country comparison across different income groups

      Apergis, Nicholas; Bhattacharya, Mita; Hadhri, Walid; University of Derby; Monash University; UAQUAP, Higher Institute of Management (Springer, 2020-01-03)
      This paper investigates the long-run dynamics between health care expenditure and environmental pollution across four global income groups. The analysis uses data from 178 countries, spanning the period 1995–2017. Panel estimations are employed with unobserved heterogeneity, temporal persistence, and cross-sectional dependence using a model with common correlated effects. The findings document that the health care expenditure is a necessity for all sub-groups. We established that a 1% increase in national income increased health expenditure by 7.2% in the full sample, and 9.3%, 8.6%, 6.8% and 2.9% for low, low-middle, upper-middle and high-income groups, respectively, while a 1% increase in CO2 emissions increased health expenditure by 2.5% in the full sample, and 2.9%, 1.2%, 2.3% and 2.6% across these four income groups. We recommend that coordinated approach is needed in setting policy goals both in energy and health sectors in mitigating the negative effects of pollution. Our findings indicate that low-carbon emissions and energy efficient health care services will significantly reduce future health care expenses.
    • Natural disasters and housing prices: Fresh evidence from a global country sample

      Apergis, Nicholas; University of Derby (Asian Real Estate Society, 2020)
      Given that the literature on the impact of natural disasters on house prices is highly limited, this paper combines data on natural disasters and house prices from 117 countries, spanning the period 2000-2018 and a panel regression method to estimate the effects of natural disasters on house prices. The findings document that natural disasters lead to lower house prices, with the results surviving a number of robustness tests. When examining the impacts of natural disasters by type, the findings highlight that geological disasters exert the strongest (negative) impact on house prices. The results also illustrate the negative impact of those disasters on house prices when the distinction between small and large disasters is also accounted. The findings provide important implications for policymakers and property investors. Lower house prices in countries experience natural disasters events could significantly signify lower consumption and investment (the wealth effect), with further negative spillovers to the real economy. Economic policymakers could implement low-tax policies or quantitative easing schemes to support these areas/countries. The findings exemplify the need of governments and policymakers to mitigate climate change effects on housing by adopting new, more environmentally friendly technologies and energy sources.