• The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory

      Apergis, Nicholas; Ewing, Bradley T.; Payne, James E.; University of Derby; Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA; The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-22)
      With active drilling rigs essential for replenishing oil resources depleted through production, this study examines the potential asymmetries between drilling rig trajectory (vertical, directional, and horizontal), oil prices and oil production in the U.S. within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Based on weekly data, the results reveal long-run symmetry with respect to oil prices irrespective of drilling rig trajectory. However, there is long-run asymmetry for oil production consistent with the capital-intensive nature of drilling and the fixed costs associated with new wells. The results also show short-run asymmetry with respect to both oil prices and oil production consistent with companies taking advantage of upturns quickly and refraining from costly shut-in, plug and abandon, or increased expenditures on improved oil recovery during downturns.
    • US partisan conflict uncertainty and oil prices

      Apergis, Nicholas; Hayat, Tasawar; Saeed, Tareq; University of Derby; King Abdulaziz, University, Saudi Arabia; Quaid-I-Azam University, Pakistan (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-13)
      This empirical study significantly contributes in building emerging literature by investigating the impact of US partisan conflict uncertainty on international oil prices. It models oil prices through non-linear Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) methods in order to consider potential (non-linear) asymmetric effects of partisan political uncertainty on oil prices. The empirical results clearly document the asymmetric (non-linear) impact of partisan conflict uncertainty on international oil prices, which has been in contrast to the linear case. The findings also expose that the transmission mechanism of partisan political uncertainty to oil prices is validated through the economic growth channel. The empirical findings contribute to existing research by assisting investors in the oil industry with risk identification, analysis, and mitigation. The results can assist in discovering the links between US political risk and oil markets, determining an important element of political risk factors facing investors who want to participate in the oil industry.