• The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory

      Apergis, Nicholas; Ewing, Bradley T.; Payne, James E.; University of Derby; Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA; The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-22)
      With active drilling rigs essential for replenishing oil resources depleted through production, this study examines the potential asymmetries between drilling rig trajectory (vertical, directional, and horizontal), oil prices and oil production in the U.S. within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Based on weekly data, the results reveal long-run symmetry with respect to oil prices irrespective of drilling rig trajectory. However, there is long-run asymmetry for oil production consistent with the capital-intensive nature of drilling and the fixed costs associated with new wells. The results also show short-run asymmetry with respect to both oil prices and oil production consistent with companies taking advantage of upturns quickly and refraining from costly shut-in, plug and abandon, or increased expenditures on improved oil recovery during downturns.
    • The causal linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty under structural breaks: Evidence from Turkey

      Apergis, Nicholas; Bulut, Umit; Ucler, Gulbahar; Ozsahin, Serife; University of Derby; Kirsehir Ahi Evran University, Kirsehir, Turkey; Necmettin Erbakan University, Konya, Turkey (Wiley, 2021-03-03)
      The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for Turkey through monthly data spanning the period 2004:01–2019:12. To this end, the paper first builds the inflation uncertainty series using inflation data. Second, it examines the cointegration relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Finally, it searches for causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The paper employs econometric methods which explicitly consider structural breaks. After examining the inflation–inflation uncertainty nexus for the whole sample, the analysis also investigates this relationship in two subperiods, i.e., 2004:5–2010:10 and 2010:11:2019:12 considering the change in the monetary policy framework of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The findings provide evidence that there exists unidirectional causality running from inflation to inflation uncertainty for both the whole sample and the second subperiod, while there is no causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty for the first subperiod. Overall, the results show that during the second subperiod (i) when the CBRT tried to achieve not only price stability, but also financial stability and (ii) when the inflation rate is more volatile and higher, the increase in the inflation rate results in an increase in inflation uncertainty.
    • Responses of carbon emissions to corruption across Chinese provinces

      Ren, Yi-Shuai; Ma, Chao-Qun; Apergis, Nicholas; Sharp, Basil; Hunan University, China; University of Auckland, New Zealand; University of Derby (Elsevier BV, 2021-03-19)
      In response to the recent growth of multitudes of theoretical literature analysing the corruption impact on the economy and environment, this paper subjects the corruption–carbon emission relationship in China to a detailed empirical examination through the autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach and panel quantile regressions. Based on panel data from Chinese provinces, spanning the period 1998–2016, this study explores the impact of long- and short-term corruption on per capita carbon emissions by considering the heterogeneous distribution of those emissions. The results document that corruption increases per capita carbon emissions in Chinese provinces in the short run, reducing per capita carbon emissions in the long run. Moreover, an increase in corruption leads to an increase in carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles, indicating that these emissions increase with corruption severity. The coefficients in low quantiles are slightly larger than those in high quantiles, indicating that corruption leads to more carbon emissions in provinces with lower per capita carbon emissions.
    • Sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty to investor sentiment

      Rehman, Mobeen Ur; Apergis, Nicholas; University of Piraeus; University of Derby; Institute of Science and Technology Islamabad, Pakistan (Emerald, 2019-06-24)
      A series of global financial crises in 21st century, steep economic decline and slow recoveries have intensified the concern of regulatory bodies for economic policy certainty. This study explores the effect of investor sentiment on economic policy uncertainty (EPU), spanning the period 1995-2015. The analysis is carried out for Asian, Developed and the European market samples by applying the method of quantile regressions. The findings document the presence of a negative impact of investor sentiment on EPU. Robustness analysis illustrates the validity of the results for the cases of Asian and Developed markets.