• Accounting information and excess stock returns: the role of the cost of capital – new evidence from US firm-level data

      Apergis, Nicholas; Artikis, George; Eleftheriou, Sofia; Sorros, John; University of Piraeus; University of Piraeus; University of Piraeus; University of Piraeus (Taylor & Francis, 2011-10-20)
      The goal of this article is to investigate the impact of accounting information on the cost of capital as well as how the latter influences excess returns. The analysis has certain novelties: first, it extends prior works by investigating how certain components of accounting information affect stock returns through its direct effect on the cost of capital by incorporating influential components of accounting information; second, it makes use of a sample of 330 US manufacturing firms spanning the period 1990Q1 to 2009Q2, while it makes use, for the first time in this literature, of the methodology of panel cointegration. The empirical findings display that accounting information affects directly the firm's cost of capital. This, in turn, tends to exert a negative effect on the firm's excess stock returns, an empirical documentation not captured in case researchers attempt to directly link the cost of capital and excess stock returns.
    • Accounting standards convergence dynamics: International evidence from club convergence and clustering

      Apergis, Nicholas; Christou, Christina; Hassapis, Christis; University of Piraeus; University of Piraeus; University of Cyprus (Emerald, 2014-10-28)
      This paper aims to explore convergence of accounting standards across worldwide adopted measures to investigate whether countries that have not completely adopted International Accounting Standards across the globe have displayed a tendency to act so. The new panel convergence methodology, developed by Phillips and Sul (2007), is employed. The empirical findings suggest that countries form distinct convergent clubs, albeit on a limited prevalence, yielding support to the notion that on a global basis firms and countries have initiated processes that will eventually lead them to a uniform pattern of employing common accounting standards.
    • Agriculture, trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options.

      Rafiq, Shudhasattwa; Salim, Ruhul; Apergis, Nicholas; Deakin University; Curtin University; Northumbria University (Wiley, 2015-11-05)
      This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high‐, medium‐ and low‐income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the study employs three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group‐type linear panel models and one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross‐sectional dependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value‐added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails to track any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.
    • Another look at contagion across United States and European financial markets: Evidence from the credit default swaps markets

      Tsionas, Mike G.; Apergis, Nicholas; Lancaster University; University of Derby (Wiley, 2021-01-18)
      The paper looks at the results of Apergis, Christou and Kynigakis (2019) and proposes a novel model that allows time variation in volatility, skewness and kurtosis, based on multivariate stable distributions. The analysis also looks at bank sector CDS, insurance sector CDS, sovereign bonds, equity and volatility indices. The findings corroborate their results and indicate significant evidence of contagion, especially through the channels of co‐skewness and co‐kurtosis. In addition, it establishes a higher order channel of causality between co‐skewness and co‐kurtosis.
    • An application of nonparametric regression to missing data in large market surveys

      Madden, Gary; Apergis, Nicholas; Rappoport, Paul; Banerjee, Anniruddha; Curtin University; University of Piraeus; Temple University; Advance Analytics (Taylor & Francis, 2017-09-01)
      Non-response (or missing data) is often encountered in large-scale surveys. To enable the behavioural analysis of these data sets, statistical treatments are commonly applied to complete or remove these data. However, the correctness of such procedures critically depends on the nature of the underlying missingness generation process. Clearly, the efficacy of applying either case deletion or imputation procedures rests on the unknown missingness generation mechanism. The contribution of this paper is twofold. The study is the first to propose a simple sequential method to attempt to identify the form of missingness. Second, the effectiveness of the tests is assessed by generating (experimentally) nine missing data sets by imposed MCAR, MAR and NMAR processes, with data removed.
    • ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Alexakis, Panagiotis; University of Macedonia; University of the Aegean (Elsevier, 1996-05)
      Extensive empirical work has produced mixed evidence regarding the validity of the unbiased efficient expectations hypothesis in the foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis in this paper, via cointegration techniques, produces the same inconclusive results for three currency markets, namely, the FFR/$US, the DM/$US and the Yen/$US foreign exchange market. However, when modeling conditional heteroskedasticity of exchange rates, through autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models, the results are fairly conclusive; the presence of the efficient foreign exchange market hypothesis is found in all these three currency markets.
    • Are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states

      Apergis, Nicholas; Loomis, David; Payne, James; University of Piraeus; Illinois State University; Illinois State University (Elsevier, 2010-08)
      This short communication examines whether or not U.S. natural gas consumption follows a stationary process. Unlike previous research that has focused on regional country or industrial sector-based panel studies, this study undertakes a sub-national investigation of natural gas consumption for the 50 U.S. states. Levin et al. (2002), Im et al. (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), and Hadri (2000) panel unit root and stationarity tests reveal that natural gas consumption is integrated of order one. However, once allowance is made for endogenously determined structural breaks, the Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005), Im et al. (2005), and Westerlund (2005) panel unit root and stationarity tests indicate that natural gas consumption is integrated of order zero. Discussion of the structural breaks is briefly surveyed in relation to the natural gas industry’s response to legislative actions.
    • Asymmetric Cross‐market Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Daily Data on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

      Apergis, Nicholas; Rezitis, Antonios; University of Ioannina; University of Ioannina (Wiley, 2002-12-16)
      We investigate cross‐market volatility spillover effects across New York and London foreign exchange and equity markets. By using several daily data‐sets, each relating to a different time of the day, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach, the empirical analysis found volatility spillover effects (meteor shower effects) from the foreign exchange market in London and New York to the equity market in New York and London, respectively. By contrast, the results did not show volatility spillover effects from the equity markets to the foreign exchange markets across New York and London.
    • Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in Pakistan

      Apergis, Nicholas; Ullah, Sana; Usman, Ahmed; Chishti, Muhammad Zubair; University of Derby; Quaid-i-Azam University; Government College University Faisalabad; Quaid-i-Azam University (Springer, 2020-06-06)
      This study inspects the empirical association between inflation instability, GDP growth volatility, and the environmental quality in Pakistan, covering the period 1975-2018 by using an asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodological approach. The asymmetric ARDL results document that positive and negative shocks of inflation instability have different effects on environmental quality. Negative shocks of inflation instability have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and nitrous oxide emissions (N2O), while positive shocks of inflation instability have insignificant effects in the long run. Asymmetric findings also suggest that positive and negative fluctuations in GDP growth volatility affect CO2 and N2O emissions differently, while they have insignificant results on methane emissions (CH4) in the long run. Additionally, in the short-run, positive and negative shocks of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility behave differently in terms of their impact on pollution emissions. Based on these findings, the study opens up innovative intuitions for policymakers to support a robust role of economic stability in attaining targets relevant to pollution reduction.
    • Asymmetric information and employment: evidence from the U.S. banking sector.

      Apergis, Nicholas; Fafaliou, Irene; Stefanitsis, marinos; University of Piraeus; University of Piraeus; National Bank of Greece (Elsevier., 2016-09-22)
      The goal of this paper is to analyze and assess the role of asymmetric information for employment performance in the case of the U.S. banking industry. To this end, the analysis performs a number of methodological approaches, such as panel cointegration and long- and short-run panel causality, spanning the period 2000–2013. The findings provide evidence that asymmetric information exerts a negative effect on employment. The results remain robust after the implementation of further checks.
    • Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks.

      Apergis, Nicholas; Cooray, Arusha; Curtin University; University of Nottingham Malaysia (Elsevier, 2015-05-09)
      This paper provides new evidence on asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and the Australian economies by using the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model, central bank interest rates, lending and deposit interest rates from selected banks, spanning the period 2000–2013. The results provide evidence that corroborates the asymmetric pass-through market predictions. Robustness tests are also performed by splitting the sample period into that prior to and after the recent financial crisis. The new findings document that the asymmetric character of pass-through remains active only in the case of Australia.
    • Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries.

      Apergis, Nicholas; Sgro, Pasquale; Rafiq, Shudhasattwa; University of Piraeus; Deakin University (Elsevier., 2016-03-12)
      This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second-generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross-sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, although it is detrimental to non-oil and total trade balances. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries. Forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, they must worry about oil price declines. A decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies. Hence, a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect, while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline. These results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be.
    • The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory

      Apergis, Nicholas; Ewing, Bradley T.; Payne, James E.; University of Derby; Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA; The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-22)
      With active drilling rigs essential for replenishing oil resources depleted through production, this study examines the potential asymmetries between drilling rig trajectory (vertical, directional, and horizontal), oil prices and oil production in the U.S. within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Based on weekly data, the results reveal long-run symmetry with respect to oil prices irrespective of drilling rig trajectory. However, there is long-run asymmetry for oil production consistent with the capital-intensive nature of drilling and the fixed costs associated with new wells. The results also show short-run asymmetry with respect to both oil prices and oil production consistent with companies taking advantage of upturns quickly and refraining from costly shut-in, plug and abandon, or increased expenditures on improved oil recovery during downturns.
    • The asymmetric relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices in Vietnam: Some behavioural implications for energy policy-making

      Apergis, Nicholas; Gangopadhyay, Partha; University of Derby; University of Western Sydney (Elsevier, 2020-04-06)
      With rapidly expanding real GDP in Vietnam, it is anticipated that the Vietnamese energy production will increase to meet its rising energy consumption. An important corollary is that pollution will also rise since the energy sector is considered a big polluter in the developing world. This paper brings two important insights to this literature: first and foremost, this paper seeks to establish if any behavioural biases of policy makers have clouded the decision to adopt suitable energy technologies and policies in Vietnam with far-reaching consequences for sustainability in the region. Secondly, in order to detect behavioural biases, it considers the asymmetric effects of increases vis-à-vis decreases in regressors by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) models, to examine how such increases or decreases really impact on pollution in Vietnam. Using annual data from 1982 to 2015, the analysis finds that the long-run relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices have been characterised by non-linear and asymmetric interlinkages to indicate hidden cointegration. We further argue that such hidden cointegration can signal important behavioural biases in (energy) policy-making.
    • The bank lending channel and monetary policy rules for Eurozone banks: further extensions

      Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen; Alevizopoulou, Effrosyni; Curtin University; University of Nevada Las Vegas; University of Piraeus (De Gruyter, 2014-06-12)
      The monetary authorities affect macroeconomic activity through various channels of influence. This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how central bank actions affect the loan supply through its main indicator of policy, the real short-term interest rate. This paper employs the endogenously determined target interest rate, emanating from the European Central Bank’s monetary policy rule, to examine the operation of the bank lending channel. Furthermore, it examines whether different bank-specific characteristics affect how Eurozone banks react to monetary shocks. That is, do sounder banks react more to the monetary policy rule than less-sound banks? The paper finds evidence of an active and statistically and economically significant bank lending channel for the Eurozone between 2000 and 2009.
    • Banking development and energy consumption: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries

      Aslan, Alper; Apergis, Nicholas; Topcu, Mert; Nevsehir University; Curtin University; Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University (Elsevier, 2014-06-21)
      Since the late 1990s, much scholarly work has been done in the field of energy economics on the nexus between economic growth and energy consumption. Over the last decade, however, the literature has been recompiled through examining the relationship between energy consumption and a set of variables by referring to the implicit role of economic growth. Based upon finance-energy nexus, this paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the banking development and energy consumption for a panel of seven Middle Eastern countries using panel cointegration and causality techniques over the period 1980–2011. Panel cointegration results show a long-run relationship between energy consumption, income, energy prices and banking sector development indicators. FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) results reveal that all banking sector indicators affect energy demand positively in the long-run and the impact range falls between 0.169 and 0.396. In terms of causality, there is evidence of a one way short-run relationship from banking expansion to energy consumption while long-run dynamics indicate a bi-directional feedback relationship. These results have some implications for energy and environmental policy. One main implication is that energy conservation policies may be implemented with little or no adverse impact on financial development in the short-run whereas they might become detrimental in the long-run.
    • The behaviour of interest rate spreads prior to and after the financial crisis: evidence across OECD countries.

      Apergis, Nicholas; Cooray, Arusha; University of Piraeus; University of New South Wales (Wiley, 2018-03-09)
      This study investigates the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on interest rate spreads across OECD countries, using a number of panel methodological approaches, over the 1990–2015 period. We examine the differential impact of the global financial crisis on interest rate spreads by dividing the sample period into two, i.e. the period prior to and after the crisis. Having identified and estimated the impact of a number of drivers on interest rate spreads, the findings document that after the 2008 financial crisis, the sensitivity of spreads to its determinants turn out to be statistically significant and incorporate credit risk to a greater extent. The findings survive a number of robustness checks. The policy implications of the empirical findings are also discussed.
    • Budget deficits and exchange rates: further evidence from cointegration and causality tests

      Apergis, Nicholas; University of Macedonia (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 1998)
      ttempts to examine the relationship between budget (or public) deficits and exchange rates in eight OECD countries, namely Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, France, and Canada over the period 1980‐1995 by using quarterly data and the methodologies of cointegration, long‐run causality and Granger (or short‐run) causality tests. The empirical findings provide evidence in favour of the association between exchange rates and budget deficits with the impact of these deficits on the exchange rate, however, not being uniform. In certain cases budget deficits seem to have led to a currency depreciation, while in others to a currency appreciation.
    • Can (unusual) weather conditions in New York predict South African stock returns?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Gupta, Ragan; University of Piraeus; University of Pretoria (Elsevier, 2017-05-03)
      This paper investigates the explanatory power of certain weather variables, measured as deviations from their monthly averages, in a leading international financial trading centre, i.e., New York, for South African stock returns, over the daily period January 2nd, 1973 to December, 31, 2015. The empirical results highlight that these unusual deviations of weather variables have a statistically significant negative effect on the stock returns in South Africa, indicating that unusual weather conditions in New York can be used to predict South African stock returns, which otherwise seems to be highly unpredictable. In fact, a forecasting exercise recommends that a trading rule that considers those weather variables through a GARCH modelling approach seems to outperform the random walk model and thus beat the market.
    • Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?

      Apergis, Nicholas; University of Piraeus (Elsevier, 2014-05-07)
      This paper explores whether gold prices have a reliable out-of-sample relationship with the Australian dollar/US dollar nominal and real exchange rates using daily and quarterly data, respectively, spanning the period 2000–2012. Through an Error Correction Model (ECM), the empirical findings suggest that the out-of-sample predictive ability is strong and robust across short- and long-run horizons. The results could offer informational availability for monetary policymakers, hedge fund managers and international portfolio managers. They also provide additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets.