• Can the Covid-19 pandemic and oil prices drive the US partisan conflict index?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Derby; University of Huddersfield (Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, 2020-05-29)
      This paper investigates the effect of the Covid-19 and oil prices on the US partisan conflict. Using daily data on world Covid-19 and oil prices, monthly data on the US Partisan Conflict index, January 21 to April 30, 2020, and the MIDAS method, the findings document that both Covid-19 and oil prices mitigate US political polarization. The findings imply that political leaders aim low for partisan gains during stressful times.
    • Investigating the impact of auto loans on unemployment: The US experience

      Apergis, Emmanuel; Apergis, Nicholas; Young, Weiwei; University of Derby; University of Huddersfield (Taylor & Francis, 2020-07-28)
      This paper explores the impact of automobile loan debt on US unemployment. Individuals with heterogeneous economic positions deem automobiles as important durable goods for unemployment exit and expected wage increases. The methodological approach makes use of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing modelling approach to document a negative and significant relationship between auto loans and unemployment. The results survive certain robustness tests, while they seem to confirm certain theoretical arguments posed in the literature, such as that the credit mechanism that dominates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy (credit shocks have a profound significant link with unemployment), while they seem to mitigate the role of alternative theories (where levered households suffer from a ‘debt overhang’ problem that distorts their preferences, making them demand high wages, and the ‘vacancy-posting’ effect) which imply that loans lead to high unemployment. The findings seem to provide significant recommendations to monetary policy makers on strengthening the banking services industry, providing an alternative to monetary policy for labour market intervention.
    • Long-term unemployment: a question of skill obsolescence (updating existing skills) or technological shift (acquiring new skills)?

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Derby; University of Huddersfield (Emerald, 2020-02-20)
      This paper empirically explores the role of skill losses during unemployment behind firms’ behaviour in interviewing long-term unemployed. The analysis makes use of the Work Employment Relations Survey in the UK, while it applies a Panel Probit Modelling approach to estimate the empirical findings. The findings document that skill losses during long-term unemployment reduce the likelihood of an interview, while they emphasize the need for certain policies that could compensate for this skills deterioration. For robustness check, the estimation strategy survives the examination of the same predictors under different types of the working environment. The original values of the work lie on combining for the first time both duration and technology as predictors of interview probability. Until now, the independent variables were used to test whether an individual has managed to exit unemployment, thus skipping the step of the interview process.
    • A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; Apergis, Hercules; University of Derby; University of Kent (Elsevier, 2019-02-12)
      Contrary to the common approach of stress-testing under which banks are evaluated whether they are distressed, this empirical study chooses to move from the micro stress test approach to a wider new macro stress test category. By being able to stress testing the entire economy of the Eurozone, it will permit big banks to fail and, at the same time, will open room for new banking players to enter the sector, promoting the essence of a healthy destruction. The analysis performs a battery of stress tests, by implementing VaR, Cornish-Fisher VaR, Monte Carlo VaR, Expected Shortfall, Cornish-Fisher Expected Shortfall, and Monte Carlo Expected Shortfall. At the same time, it explicitly considers the new regulatory approach of IFRS9 to incorporate extreme values from forecasted series in the distributions. The analysis also performs two versions of stress tests, one including TARGET2 and one without it. The results document that future stress tests should include TARGET2 values in order to capture a better picture of the stressed economy. The findings from these stress tests clearly illustrate that although there has been a trough after the distress call of 2008, this trough ended. These are results derived without including the TARGET2 transfers. By including the TARGET2 transfers we receive a different picture that possibly acts as a protective mechanism against any future crisis. Caution is still advised, possibly due to some lingering imbalances within the Eurozone.
    • The role of rare earth prices in renewable energy consumption: the actual driver for a renewable energy world

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Kent; University of Piraeus (Elsevier, 2016-12-30)
      This study examines, for the first time in the energy issues literature, the long-run relationship between rare earth prices and the consumption of energy from renewables. The study applies standard time series econometric methodologies and monthly data in relevance to regional and income classification groups of countries, spanning the period 2004–2016. The empirical findings indicate the presence of a long-run relationship between these variables, but for certain rare earths and regions. The findings survive a multivariate robustness test, while they are expected to be of substantial importance for the world community, given that a few countries have control of those materials. The importance is lying on the need to establish a global green energy environment.
    • US political corruption: identifying the channels of bribes for firms' financial policies.

      Apergis, Nicholas; Apergis, Emmanuel; University of Kent; University of Piraeus (Elsevier, 2017-09-28)
      This paper presents first-time evidence on ‘channel-based’ firm corruption in the US, spanning the period 2000–2010. By employing conviction, type of bribery, ethnicity firm-level data, and two alternative panel econometric approaches for robustness, the empirical analysis documents first, that the cash payment channel dominates bribery activities in relevance to the firms' financial policies, while ethnicity groups do matter in exemplifying the role of those channels, with the Anglo-Saxon group dominating such activities. The results could be of substantial importance for regulators in developing venues to capture corruption activities.