Green transport planning paradoxes

Abstract

System dynamic modelling is used to show that the development of a mass transport network follows a pattern of continuous growth until the system is replaced by what is seen as a better, or now, greener solution to the problem of moving goods and people. This modelling shows the effect, on the transport system, of the dominant means of progressing from canals to rail to roads to trans-urban rail systems, for example rail replaced canals and road replaced rail as the dominant system. These models are then used to demonstrate that although current transport developments emphasise their Green credentials, such as the London Crossrail and Borders railway developments, these developments can have non-Green results, acting to move (further) from city centres and encourage non-Green urban sprawl.